Friday, November 19, 2004
Catcher gone Crazy
Numerous studies have shown that in their early 30s, catchers begin to decline. This makes perfect sense as it is a grueling position. I have also seen a threshold of 1300 games ascribed, but you really need to include minor league games if you're going to play with numbers like that. It's not as if minor league games are less demanding on the body.
Varitek is an interesting situation, because he actually seems to be improving with age. His OPS (on-base plus slugging) the past 4 full seasons:
2000: .730
2002: .724
2003: .863
2004: .872
A week into the season next year, he will turn 33. He's right around the same age as Pudge Rodriguez, and about 3 years younger than Piazza.
So it would make sense that a. Varitek should command a salary in proportion to Pudge's, as per their accomplishments and expectations going forward, and that b. we might be able to see how age might impact both catchers by looking at Piazza over the past few seasons.
First, Pudge. His OPS the past four years has been, .888, .895, .843, and .893. Additionally he is generally considered to be a better defensive catcher, but his dealings with pitchers and his attitude has been questioned at times. Incidentally, these are the starting catchers for the last two world series teams. But to be fair to Varitek, let's say that he is worth the same as Pudge. His hitting and fielding is a little worse, but he is a team leader and a strong defender.
Based on this, Varitek could expect something in the range of 4 years, $40 million.
But should he get that?
Let's look at Piazza's OPS by age, over the past several seasons:
31: 1.012
32: .957
33: .903
34: .860
35: .806
If Varitek also experienced a 5% decline each year, he'd be at a .745 OPS in the third year of his contract. That puts him in Shane Spencer territory. If by his recent trend, he can actually put off this decline by a year or two, he still isn't giving you $10 million per year numbers.
But he's asking (apparantly) for better than Ivan Rodriguez numbers. Here are his reported demands:
-5 years. He would be 37 when his contract ended
-55 million, or more than Ivan Rodriguez is paid
-A no trade clause, which would cause some other players on the Sox to have a no-trade clause kick-in.
I really hope the Red Sox can find a way to keep Jason Varitek, but if his reported demands are real, I don't think there is any way that they can hold on to him. The Sox best hope is to keep communication open (eliminating the mistakes of the previous regime), let him know that there are just some things they can't do, and making it clear that with his and Boras's demands, they have to speak to other free agents.
Then, hopefully the market will let Varitek know that a 32 year old catcher can't get a 5 year, $50+ million deal with a no-trade clause, and he'll come back to the fans who love him for 4 years, $38 million.
Varitek is an interesting situation, because he actually seems to be improving with age. His OPS (on-base plus slugging) the past 4 full seasons:
2000: .730
2002: .724
2003: .863
2004: .872
A week into the season next year, he will turn 33. He's right around the same age as Pudge Rodriguez, and about 3 years younger than Piazza.
So it would make sense that a. Varitek should command a salary in proportion to Pudge's, as per their accomplishments and expectations going forward, and that b. we might be able to see how age might impact both catchers by looking at Piazza over the past few seasons.
First, Pudge. His OPS the past four years has been, .888, .895, .843, and .893. Additionally he is generally considered to be a better defensive catcher, but his dealings with pitchers and his attitude has been questioned at times. Incidentally, these are the starting catchers for the last two world series teams. But to be fair to Varitek, let's say that he is worth the same as Pudge. His hitting and fielding is a little worse, but he is a team leader and a strong defender.
Based on this, Varitek could expect something in the range of 4 years, $40 million.
But should he get that?
Let's look at Piazza's OPS by age, over the past several seasons:
31: 1.012
32: .957
33: .903
34: .860
35: .806
If Varitek also experienced a 5% decline each year, he'd be at a .745 OPS in the third year of his contract. That puts him in Shane Spencer territory. If by his recent trend, he can actually put off this decline by a year or two, he still isn't giving you $10 million per year numbers.
But he's asking (apparantly) for better than Ivan Rodriguez numbers. Here are his reported demands:
-5 years. He would be 37 when his contract ended
-55 million, or more than Ivan Rodriguez is paid
-A no trade clause, which would cause some other players on the Sox to have a no-trade clause kick-in.
I really hope the Red Sox can find a way to keep Jason Varitek, but if his reported demands are real, I don't think there is any way that they can hold on to him. The Sox best hope is to keep communication open (eliminating the mistakes of the previous regime), let him know that there are just some things they can't do, and making it clear that with his and Boras's demands, they have to speak to other free agents.
Then, hopefully the market will let Varitek know that a 32 year old catcher can't get a 5 year, $50+ million deal with a no-trade clause, and he'll come back to the fans who love him for 4 years, $38 million.
# posted by Darlucky @ 2:07 PM 
