NY Boston Fan

So I've joined forces with some people that are much smarter than me at the Daily 411, where I will hopefully be a consistent contributor.

This is the part where I would say "update your bookmarks" if I actually believed that anyone had me bookmarked.

A (not so) quick look at the Yankee lineup, which is being "raped over the coals" as one of my friend's says, by the media. Here's a short review of how they are doing and how this would likely change going forward:

Derek Jeter - Jeter's off to a good start, he can probably drive the ball a bit more often, but if he just kept up his current pace out of the leadoff spot he'd be one of the better leadoff guys in the league.
Alex Rodriguez - Current pace: .205, 16 home runs, 65 RBI, 65 runs, 162 strike outs, and a big set of goat horns for his play in the field.
Gary Sheffield - He's starting to hit. That .758 OPS will climb up to 1.000 before too long. So the Yankees have their second source of potential extra runs.
Hideki Matsui - Matsui's been great. He probably can't quite keep up this pace, but he probably won't be too far off of it either. His high RBI total is due in part to the inability for the previous two guys to do anything at all.
Jason Giambi - We have no idea what we're going to get from this guy. I would be that he'll get slightly better, certainly getting his OPS over .800 which is OK, but he'll still be infuriating Yankee fans. For now, I'll just say that he'll just keep up his current pace.
Jorge Posada - This is probably the toughest guy to call. Has he just gotten old, or is he in a slump? I think it's probably a combination of both, but he looked so bad yesterday that I'd say it's mostly slump. It didn't look like bat speed, he just looked uncomfortable in the batter's box and had no idea what he was doing. I'd say he'll fall between last year's numbers and this year's pace.
Ruben Sierra/Tino Martinez - Ugh. If Bernie is washed up, the bottom of the lineup is not scary at all. I think we're getting what we're going to see out of the Yankee DH/1B platoon here.
Bernie Williams - Another big question mark. I think if the Yankees had signed Beltran I wouldn't be writing this post, but I'm glad for the chance. Bernie Williams is no longer Bernie, but he's not yet a .219 hitter either.
Tony Womack - Sorry Yankee fans, a .306 OBP and a matching slugging is about all you're going to get from this guy, even if the YES announcers will get over-excited about the 30 steals that comes along with it. But then again, it's your #9 hitter, so really, that isn't too bad.

Based on where the Yankees players are individually, and what I would expect going forward, I compared that to runs created to see how many more runs they would have to date if they were on their expected pace. Looking through, I'd expect A-Rod to pretty much triple his offensive contribution in terms of runs created (5 more runs to this point), Sheff to increase by 33% (2 more runs), Matsui's slight decline to offset Sheff, and Bernie and Jorge to each increase such that would have added 1 run each.

So where would 7 more runs put them at this point? Having scored 56, and given up 69, which works out to be a .400 winning percentage. Ouch. That's a 65-97 record.

So as I listen to radio hosts rip through the lineup (A-Rod, Giambi, Tino, Sierra, Posada, Sheffield), I think that it is somewhat warranted. But the reality is that Yankee pitching has given up one less run than Texas, and 8 less than Colorado, and everyone else in the majors has been better. So while the fans and media can look at some of the "stars" that aren't hitting, and question Torre for his bizarre lineups, it is the pitching that everyone should be focusing on.

The list of underperforming pitchers is much longer than the list of hitters, and it starts with key acquisitions that can't get anyone out (Jaret Wright, Felix Rodriguez), the former anchors of the bullpen who have gone from automatic to heart-attack provoking (Gordon and Rivera), and a former ace who's been averaging almost 2 baserunners per inning (Mussina).

These guys are old, so it could be the alignment of all of them getting too old at the same time. Today, Kevin Brown, another old pitcher will try to right the ship. I wouldn't be nervous as a Yankee fan after 11 games. It's early. If Brown gets pounded today, I start to get nervous.

But in reality, Johnson will be better. Pavano will be a bit better. Mussina will be better. Gordon and Rivera will be better. They HAVE to be, or this team will be the biggest bust in the history of the major leagues. But I'd put money on them performing more like their 2004 forms than their early 2005 forms, as the rest of the season plays out. So if the odds of the Yankees making the world series have taken a dive over the last week, it might make for a good investment.

You know, if betting on the Yankees winning wouldn't corrode your soul and put a curse on your first-born child.

So, what are the next 10 (or last 10 songs) played on your iTunes/iPod/mp3 player?

iTunes likes hip hop this morning:

1. Picture Me Rollin - 2Pac
2. Fight Music - D12
3. Techno Club - Pablo Francisco (comedy)
4. Needles - System of a Down
5. Lick Dem M**haphu**as - Brand Nubian
6. What's Beef? - Notorious B.I.G.
7. Chicken Grease - D'Angelo
8. F*** You - Cam'Ron
9. My 1st Single - Eminem
10. Fresh, Wild, and Bold - Cru

Remember this? Can I get done before the NBA playoffs start, now that I couldn't get it done before the NCAA tourney ended? Stupid work!

Now, the Danny Ferry bracket:

2 Duke vs. 15 California

Duke: Chris Duhon, Corey Maggette, Grant Hill, Carlos Boozer, Elton Brand
Bench: Luol Deng, Mike Dunleavy, Shane Battier, Christian Laettner, Dahntay Jones

Cal: Jason Kidd, Lamond Murray, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Sean Marks, Francisco Elson
Bench: Michael Stewart

It would be fun to write up a scenario where Jason Kidd is able to exploit the one weakness of Duke (point guard), and lead the team to an improbable victory. Because really, who wants Duke to win? But then unfortunately I looked at the players. Duke has 8 guys (all but Jones and Duhon) that would crack Cal's starting lineup. Cal has 2 guys that could crack Duke's 9-man rotation.

Chris Duhon would just be able to bring the ball up, run the offense through Hill and the post-men, and just slowly grind out a victory against Cal, who is too big at every position, but not very skilled at most. Cal's lone bench player may not even be in the NBA any more from what I can tell, while Duke could just keep coming with Deng, Battier, and Dunleavy, who can all score. This turns into a rout, as Duke, as usual, gets an easy draw. The consolation, is that their next game will be tough.

The two biggest surprises for me looking into this one: Maggette scores 22 points per game this year, and Sean Marks is white.

7 Arizona vs. 10 Michigan State

Arizona: Mike Bibby, Gilbert Arenas, Richard Jefferson, Luke Walton, Loren Woods
Bench: Jason Terry, Damon Stoudamire, Andrew Iquadola

MSU: Eric Snow, Jason Richardson, Morris Peterson, Zach Randolph, Kevin Willis
Bench: Steve Smith, Mateen Cleeves

This game could be a toss-up, as both teams have 3 really good starters and no real big-man depth, so I'll have to give it the old Dr. Jack treatment.

Point guard: Bibby is a true winner, and since I get most of my non-Atlantic Division NBA coverage from Bill Simmons, I have to believe that Bibby is still one of the most valuable players in the league. Advantage: Arizona
Shooting guard: Arenas is all over the NBA's top 10 stat lists this year, and despite his reputation as a bit of a selfish player, he is the best player on a playoff bound team. Richardson is a spectacular dunker, who is a better rebounder and turns the ball over less than Arenas, while still scoring 22 points per game. This is a really tough one, and the edge is only slight I think, but Advantage: Arizona
Small forward: I always used to confuse Richard Jefferson and Jason Richardson. I guess that's understandable. Mo-Pete is a nice player. But when I think of his strength, I think of 3-point shooting (which he is only 5% better than Jefferson), while Jefferson is better at just about everything else, except turnovers. Advantage: Arizona
Power forward: So at this point you might think, why is the breakdown necessary if Arizona has every advantage. Well here is the crushing advantage that negates the Bibby vs. Snow difference. On one side, you have a decent bench player who can distribute the ball a bit, and on the other side you have a guy who has averaged about 20 and 10 over the past two years. Whatever you want to say about Randolph's personality (see mugshot: here), he scores and rebounds with anyone in this tourney. Advantage: MSU
Center: 4 points, 5 rebounds, 15 minutes per game, and a younger body, or an old man, 3 points, 3 rebounds, and 11 minutes per game. Woods is a disapointment. Willis is over the hill. Advantage: Tie
Bench: This is probably the difference maker in the end. MSU would need to sub out for old man Willis, and all they could do is move Randolph to the 5, and have to move everyone else up a position as well to make room for Smith or Cleeves. Because of that, they cannot fully capitalize on their frontcourt advantage. Meanwhile, Arizona has a scorer (Terry) and a shutdown defender (Iquadola), that can pretty much hang with the MSU starters. Throw in a stoner who can make sure the team is ready to party after the game, and Arizona has their final edge. Advantage: Arizona

If MSU had a center, this would be a great game. Instead, it's a really good one, taken by Arizona.

So to review, the quarterfinals will feature Kentucky vs. UCLA, UNC vs. UConn, Georgia Tech vs. Kansas, and now Duke vs. Arizona.

This was such a class move by the Yankees.

I'm glad the Red Sox acknowledged it so strongly as well. We'll completely forget about it when there is the inevitable brawl in July, but it was very cool to see.

I personally hope that the Red Sox never need to watch the Yankees get their rings, but if they are ever in the same situation, I hope that they will remember this and do the same. It is really nice to be known as an organization that "does things right," even if detractors can point to lots of instances where they didn't do things right.

Wish I could have watched the whole ceremony. Mariano Rivera's waving to the cheering fans has to be one of the funnier things I've seen in sports in a while. Well played Mariano!

So the Sox are not going to go 0 for 2005.

The Sox got lucky, A-Rod's blunder cost the Yankees the game. But, the Red Sox offense was relentless, they put up a team on-base percentage of .455 for the game. Despite the infuriating and laughable base-running errors and double plays, that number of base runners will win you a lot of games. That's what this lineup was put together to do.

Yankee fans have good reason to be nervous about Rivera. Rivera has now blown something like 9 of his last 24 save chances against the Red Sox, while only blowing 14 in 170+ chances in the same period against the rest of the world. But his inability to get out of a jam today, (while being allowed to throw 38 pitches to get two outs), are either signs of a shaky start or a deeper problem. Rivera isn't known to be shaky, so make of that what you will.

Edited to add: Speaking of Rivera, I think it's a bit early for Yankee fans to be booing their closer, when they are 2-1, four of the runs were unearned, and the guy is a future hall-of-famer who will one day have his big ears on a plaque in Monument Park. I can't remember ever hearing Yankee fans boo Rivera before. Ever. I would have thought he could have taken off his pants and had a Mets tattoo on his ass, and the Bleacher Creatures would still at least applaud politely.

Just another sign that the rivalry has evolved.

Unbelievable. I know everyone hits bad patches, and it all evens out in the end, but you think Edgar might be pushing a bit?

Here's his stat line so far:

10 AB
0 hits
4 Double plays
2 K's

So he's responsible for 14 outs already. Three of his double-plays have come with a man on second, killing rallies. He's like a combination of 2003 Johnny Damon (can't hit with men in scoring position) and Jim Rice (the older Jim Rice, when he was better known for double plays than hitting home runs).

Meanwhile, you can't assume the double play, but his error yesterday should have not just been one out, but should have been two. That led directly into Matsui's three run home run. In a one run game. And his poor fielding in the first game led to runs as well.

I've been joking that I miss Nomar. But in reality, right now we would have been better off with Cesar Crespo over these first 3 games. He better turn it around by Monday or he's going to really hear it in Boston.

OK, so the Sox are 0-2, Renteria has been absolutely horrible, various members of the bullpen have looked shaky while the starters have been wild. But hey, they have Jason Varitek as catcher and captain, and he showed once again that the Sox have no fear of Rivera.

Meanwhile, the UConn Huskies are no longer defending champions in men's basketball. But ESPN has them ranked as their pre-pre-pre-season #1 for 2005-6.

The Huskies are loaded for 2006, even without Villanueva, and should be playing with a purpose after their early NCAA exit. That's why we like them to cut down the nets for the second time in three seasons.

The Huskies bring back one of the top scoring point guards in Marcus Williams. They'll have a potential lottery pick who should star even more in
wing Rudy Gay, and a deep frontcourt with Josh Boone, Hilton Armstrong and Ed Nelson. The wings are set with Denham Brown and Rashad Anderson. And, barring another medical setback, the Huskies will get the point guard they thought would be playing this season in A.J. Price.

Calhoun said he expects the Huskies' forwards, notably Boone, Armstrong and Nelson, to have monster seasons. Anderson should be back to his 2003-04 form after recovering from a potentially fatal infection. Calhoun expects Andrew Bynum and Jeff Adrien to have major impacts off the bench as freshmen. He loves their toughness.
So, add all of that together – overall talent, a renewed purpose after the disappointment of this past March, and the team's finally being healthy and free of freaky illnesses – and the Huskies should be poised for a title run.

Duke is #2, not surprisingly. Nova is #4, Louisville #11, West Virginia #15, 'Cuse #22, so the Big East will be back in a big way next year.

Beltran homers

Pedro strikes out 12

Bullpen blows it

A few thoughts after last night:

Edgar Renteria should not drink with Kevin Millar before the games. I am really excited about Renteria, but it would be tough to have a worse start than the one he had.

Gary Sheffield is rapidly climbing the list of people that are nearly impossible to root for. Although now that he is presumably off the juice, there is less probability that he will kill someone with his bare hands during a game. Fans, umpires, opponents, and A-Rod can all breathe easier.

Joe Morgan is so awful, that I was actually excited that we got to listen to the YES announcers instead, as the local coverage pre-empted ESPN2's broadcast. That said, I am sure the YES guys are going to drive me crazy by the end of the year, if not April.

Last year has changed the dynamic of the rivalry in a big way, and it is already evident. While the announcers still couldn't resist talking about the past, it was with a different tone and aim. And with the fans, not only is there no more NINE-teen EIGHT-teen, but the whole relationship is different. I think in years past, cheers would have outnumbered the boos for Wells, who meant a lot to this team and publicly said he wanted to play for the Yankees. But now, even though it is their Boomer, they couldn't cheer for him even politely in a Sox uniform. I think one year ago, he would have gotten cheers in this situation.

Also, last year I would have gotten several emails or comments from co-workers about the same old Red Sox. They have avoided it, likely to avoid the comeback of "nice win by the Yankees, too bad that one win came 6 months too late."

The Red Sox played terribly, but I am several weeks away from that bothering me. If they are 11-13 or better after April, I'll be content as long as they are healthy on May 1.

Radio announcers from the Tigers-Royals game just suggested that Calvin Pickering, who at 29 has been up and down from the minors five times, is the second biggest offensive threat in the Royals lineup.

It's going to be a long year for the Royals.