NY Boston Fan

So one of these weeks, everyone picking against the Pats, with the "upset special" is going to pay off - if you pick them to get upset every week, are we supposed to think you're some kind of genius when it actually happens?

Of course it will happen one of these weeks. The Pats have combined consistent skill, great schemes, and some luck to put together this streak. In a league of parity and "any given Sunday," they have to lose one of these weeks.

I don't think it happens this week, although it could. But I doubt they make it past 10-0.

Think of it this way. If the Pats have a 60% chance of winning at Pittsburgh, a 60% chance of winning at St. Louis, a 90% chance of winning at home against the Bills, a 67% chance of winning at KC, and a 70% chance of winning at home against Baltimore, then simple statistics tells us that their chance of reaching 11-0:

15%

Then again, mathematically that was pretty close to the Sox chances of coming back when they were down just 2-0 to the Yankees. So you never know...

The Houston Astros are not going to keep Jeff Kent around for next year. Which brings me to what may be an obvious thought, Steinbrenner has to be seriously pushing Brian Cashman to go after him. He would fit in perfectly with the apparant strategy of the last couple of years, of signing All-Stars and former All-Stars for every position, regardless of their personality or potential impact on the clubhouse.

Former All-Star? Check.
Reputation as clubhouse cancer? Check.
Sign him up!

As I really can't stand him, I'd hate to see him in pinstripes, simply because he would be on my television every night next summer. It certainly wouldn't make rooting against the Yankees any harder.

Count me among the people who were surprised by Manny Ramirez being named MVP. He played well the last 3 games, but I think I would have given it to Nixon, Bellhorn, or Foulke.

Well, by the metric I referred to in this post HERE, which counts the impact that a player's batting, pitching or errors had on the team's chance of winning on a play-by-play basis, David Ortiz was actually the series MVP

Of course this metric has never really been proven, it's just one interesting way to look at things. But it does make sense, even if it has some flaws, and the most surprising thing is that it found Manny Ramirez to actually be the least valuable player on the Sox in the Series. Even if you took out game 1, where they really did in win in spite of Manny, he was still the 7th most valuable player.

For the World Series, this metric ranks them:
1. David Ortiz
2. Keith Foulke
3. Mark Bellhorn
4. Curt Schilling
5. Derek Lowe
6. Trot Nixon
7. Mike Timlin
8. Johnny Damon/Orlando Cabrera/Pedro Martinez

To pick the Cardinals' least valuable player, it is pretty easy as it goes Jim Edmonds, then Scott Rolen, then all their starting pitchers along with Kiko Calero and Julian Tavarez. According to the player percentage calculations, Jim Edmonds actually had a negative total impact on the Cardinals' chances of winning in every single game.

That is pretty hard to do.

It's pretty interesting, check it out:
Play-by-play percentage

A note about why I, a 26 year old Boston sports fan who lives in NYC with his Yankee fan fiancee, started this blog. Stop by any time, leave your thoughts, and ideas for new posts...

Sox fans are funny about superstitions.

• My friend Ryan switched hats from his Sox hat to his BU hat, after game 3 of the ALCS. He even left work in the middle of the day to go get his BU hat when he found out he had scored a ticket to game 7.
• My friend Dave patented the "two-out cheese danish" to help the Sox score runs in game 3
• My mom actually would not watch any of the games, but rather sat in the next room and had my dad yell whatever happened out to her. She knew if she watched, bad things would happen.
• I sat in the same seat for every game after ALCS game 3, wore the same clothes in almost all of those games (was feeling cocky for game 2), kept the remote in the same place on the couch, pointing the same direction, and ate Cherry Garcia ice cream whenever the Sox needed a rally.
• Lastly, I didn't tell anyone that I had started blog that will relate to the Sox, NY (focusing on the Yankees I'm sure), and anything else that I feel like writing about. I'll try to avoid politics as much as possible, so it will be mostly sports. Since I started this blog, and within hours the Sox sent the series back to NY, and then they continued to win, I continued to keep it quiet.

Well now it's over, so the superstitions are out in the open. Hopefully this blog won't be too self-serving, even though it started for self-serving reasons (a way to deal with my stress over game 5), and I hope if you stop by occasionally in the future, you'll find something enjoyable to read.

If not, well at least if you're a Sox fan, you can scroll through the first 10 days or so of posts, and relive some good times. And if you're not a Sox fan, I'm sure you hate Fox Sports, so at least we have that in common.

...before I went to sleep last night, after celebrating, all kinds of phone calls, watching the post game, watching the post-post game, finally going to bed, and lying on my back, to my Yankee fan fiancee who is at least outwardly happy for me:

"Poor Nomar."

Just the thought of it brought a huge smile to my face, as it made me think back to where the Sox were at the end of July, with seemingly little hope of getting to this place.

Then I thought, "if Nomar is on the Cubs again next year, I'd be happy for him if he won."

It's funny what a world series championship can do to the bitterness that comes with being a Red Sox fan. Just a month ago, I was rooting against the Cubs even making the playoffs.

"I lived to see it" seems to be a common reaction. It really hasn't sunk in for me, so I don't really know what to say. After the ALCS, and hell, after 20 years of being a Sox fan, it kind of lacked the drama that I expected. It didn't take a wild play, and the earth didn't even swallow Fenway Park whole afterwards.

In terms of sheer moment of joy and emotion it doesn't compare with the Pats win, just because of the way it happened. But the joy of this one will probably be spread over years and year, so I'll take it. And with a good 50 years to spare before I would have repeated the famous line "they killed my father, and now they are coming after me..."

Tonight's the night, a chance to put this baby away and bury the demons for good. A few thoughts on tonight's starting pitcher:

- Lowe had the decisive save in game 5 of the 2003 ALDS, the decisive win in game 3 of the ALDS this year, and the decisive win in the ALCS this year.
- Prior to game 2, I envisioned this dream scenario: Curt goes 6 strong innings, leaves with a lead. Lowe pitches the 7th, Timlin the 8th, and Foulke the 9th. I had hoped to get a tough inning in for Lowe, so that he comes in without a full week of rest since the Yankees game. Hopefully they've been working him hard on the off-days, as we all know what extra work does for his sinker.
- A lot was made of it perhaps being Pedro's last start last night. This would definitely be Lowe's last start, but like Pedro, I'm really hoping not to see him again this post-season.
- Lowe can be a bit of a baby, and he probably is gone after this year, especially with Bor-ass as his agent, but I've enjoyed seeing him on the top step leading the cheers on almost every big play, with one leg in the air and the roundabout fist pump. He makes me nervous always, but I'm excited for him tonight.

Much has been made that last night may have been Pedro's last start as a member of the Boston Red Sox. I'll probably want to write my feelings on Pedro beyond this year, but for now I am hoping that it was at least his last appearance of this year, because if we see him again, it will be in game 7.

Game 3 will be remembered for the baserunning mistakes, and as they were pretty unbelievable, they should be remembered. But I hope that it doesn't overshadow Pedro's brilliance for the last 4 2/3 innings.

No Cardinal starter has lasted beyond 4 2/3 innings, but for the last 4 2/3 innings, Pedro was perfect, starting with the infamous groundball that Suppan goofed on. It was vintage Pedro.

He can't consistently top 95 anymore, and he does it with the grounder as often as with the strikeout, but he made great hitters look bad, and bad hitters look terrible last night. This game, should Pedro and the Sox part ways, should be remembered up with his most clutch performances and his most memorable performances, like:

• his #1 legacy, 6 no-hit innings in the 1999 ALDS clincher, despite an injury, on the road;
• beating Clemens in his next start, at home. Although I still remember this game mostly for the Sox peppering the green monster with line drives;
• his "near perfect game" against the D-Rays, when he showed a Braveheart like ability to get mad, and then get even;
• striking out 17 Yankees in September 1999, at Yankee Stadium. To me, this was Pedro's peak, and I would be happy to argue with anyone that 1999 Pedro was the greatest single season by a pitcher in history.

Whether this was Pedro's last game or not, it was a pleasure to watch, and brought back some great memories of what it felt like when Pedro was on the mound, in a groove, and you knew that the other team could do nothing about it.

Jay Bennett of the Statistics in Sports section of the American Statistical Association, has put together this interesting metric (pasted at bottom until I learn a bit more about blogger).

Basically, he awards "player game percentage" points for any play in the game as a way to define the most important players and plays of a game. Here's a basic example:

The Devil Rays come up in the bottom of the 1st, with the game tied 0-0. At this point, they have a 52% chance of winning the game. Carl Crawford triples, now in this situation, they have a 55% chance of winning the game. Crawford is awarded a +3%. The next batter, BJ Upton, strikes out, and now the Rays have a 54% chance of winning, giving Upton -1%.

Based on this sort of statistical analysis:

• Mark Bellhorn, so far, is the MVP of the series, followed closely by Foulke and Schilling. His 8th inning HR in game 1 was the second biggest play of the series so far.
• Manny Ramirez, despite being on the team that is up 2-0, is actually the LVP. Considering he has done little with the bat, and his circus-act in game 1 almost cost the Sox the game, that is not that surprising either. If it weren't for Bellhorn, Manny would be wearing the goat horns right now. Furthermore, the biggest "chance of winning" swing in the series thus far, was Manny's misplay of Walker's blooper, which actually put the Sox at a 72% chance of losing that game.
• Scott Rolen is having a horrible series, but Morris has been just a little worse. If Rolen continues to not get any hits, he should have no problem passing Morris.

Here's hoping that last point actually happens! This link will update within a day or two of each game.

http://www.amstat.org/sections/sis/pgp/ws04/summary.html

Happy 33rd Birthday, Pedro Martinez...

That is, assuming that Pedro is a player from the Carribean who didn't lie about his age.

Hmm, 33. 3 outs in an inning, 3 strikes in an out, and Pedro looking to put his team up 3-0!

I could sit at my computer during the World Series games and document all the moronic, annoying, and or overdramatic comments made by Joe and Tim, but then I would become a hateful little man, rather than a guy rooting on his team in the World Series for only the second time in his life.

So I won't say anything about it.

Except this:

Joe Buck needs to talk less. I didn't think it was possible that a baseball announcer on television could actually talk more than Michael Kay. But I am actually longing for Michael Kay and his "made for radio" announcing style. At least most of his overtalking is about what's going on in the field. Buck finds the need to set up every situation in ridiculous detail and prose, then describe it as it happens, then give a recap, and then bring it up again an inning later. He is his own color analyst, sideline reporter, and studio host.

For some reason, my SAP button was not taking me to the Spanish audio last night, but let me give you a hint. If Joe Buck ever says the words, "I think we take for granted that our audience is aware of the..." please do yourself a favor and hit mute right away. And don't hit it again until the inning is over. Because he is about to tell you a story that you have heard 37 times before. During the ALCS, it would be about A-Rod and how he was almost a Red Sox, or Babe Ruth, or Bucky Dent, or the brawl in June, or Aaron Boone, or how Clemens and Pettite are gone, or the entire history of the rivalry.

Last night, it was the story of Curt Schilling's ankle. Joe, not only did we hear about this for 2 hours last week when you wouldn't shut up about it, and not only has it been beaten to death by the press and sports TV, but you talked about it all pre-game show. So please, continue to take it for granted, because we already know.

Also I'm sure I was not the only person yelling at the TV for Joe to shut up when in the 6th inning he was talking as if the Sox had won the World Series already. If there is any team that you should wait until the final out before talking like that, it is the Red Sox. So please. Stop.

I don't have much to say about Tim McCarver, except I am not looking forward to game 3, because he obviously hates Pedro and I'm sure we will hear about what a punk he is for 3 hours. But the parallels between McCarver and Summerall are easily drawn, and I will leave it at that.

I think the overall feeling from Sox fans is about 70% joy and 30% disbelief, which actually may be the inverse of how we felt after the Yankees series. Could it be we are even feeling confident?

Sox fans are confident in March. And maybe even moreso in April, May, and June. That starts to wane in July, collapses in August, before rebounding slightly in September, but never to rise to its spring levels.

If it gets to October, we bite our nails, we do silly things like wear the same shirt every day during a win streak, and we never talk about the "when" the Sox win, and we don't even really talk about the "if." And that isn't just to avoid a jinx, we really don't believe there is an "if and when."

The feeling is completely different this time around, but I think down in each of us history gnaws at our confidence a bit. But that it isn't complete dread for what might happen next, is a step in the right direction.

To avoid that dread, the Sox need to win just one of the next three games.

Consider:

• the Cardinals have not lost on the road in this postseason. The Astros looked pretty hot, and had one of their aces going at St. Louis, when they only needed to win one. Now they are home eating chicken wings (Roger), riding dirtbikes (Kent), or drawing up plans for a dream house that would look cool on MTV Cribs (Beltran)
• The Sox have shut down Edmonds and Rolen for the most part, and were able to limit Pujols' damage in game 2 after shutting him down in game 1. They arent' necessarily "due," but I expect them to recharge in front of the home fans. And I am petrified of Larry Walker, who kind of looks like the skinnier love-child of David Wells and Roger Clemens.
• The Sox have given the Cards 3 extra outs per game in the form of 4 errors per game. Some might suggest that it can't get worse. Well with Ortiz at first, it can. Millar and Doogie have saved the Sox at least once each with a real nice scoop on a low throw. I pray for an Ortiz 3-run double that opens up an 8-2 lead in the 5th inning, with Doogie put in to run for Ortiz and take over the glove duties.

In all, I think the Cardinals are better than this. But at the same time, the Sox probably are too. And rolling out Jeff Suppan, who couldn't even get in to the ALCS last year, against Pedro doesn't lead me to think the Cards are automatic at home.

Yep, it's confidence. Weird! I guess we Sox fans could get used to that. After all, the Pats have taught us well.

I have no idea if this thought is being kicked around on tv, print, and internet, because I haven't looked. But it seems to me the Sox were actually really lucky to win that game.

They started off great, but two relatively "lucky" breaks really went their way last night:

-the bad hop that went off womack's chest, leading to runs;
-bellhorn's ball hitting the pole, despite the strong winds in right field.

Maybe there were just as many unlucky breaks that went against them (the most obvious being manny's foot getting stuck in the turf, causing him to pull up short and miss that ball), but history tells us the Sox usually don't get breaks at all.

Exhibit A: Sox win, Steinbrenner loses. OK, one example isn't enough.

Exhibit B: Roger Clemens loses.

It's funny how Roger Clemens has united three completely unrelated fan bases.

After he left for Toronto, and suddenly remembered how to be a great pitcher, Boston Red Sox fans made him public enemy number one. He only got worse when he put on the pinstripes.

New York Mets fans and Boston Red Sox fans have always had a decent amount in common I've felt, but 1986 really put a hurting on that relationship for many people. But when Clemens beaned Piazza in the head, Yankee-hating took on a whole new level for Mets fans, and Clemens was at the center of it.

Yankee fans were always quick to defend fat Roger during his Yankee days, but when he "un-retired" it did not take long for Yankee fans to turn on him, and rightly so.

So amazingly, Roger Clemens has united fans from NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, NH, VT, and ME in one common belief:

We agree that he is an arrogant, fat, self-centered, money-hungry choke-artist.

* Thanks to my friend Stew for using the word "disconfirm" instead of "disprove," and if you don't know, the title of the post is from SpaceBalls

Darn, just got an email from the MetroStars, giving me an early shot at playoff tix, for only $25 bucks first come first served.

Only problem is, the game is this Saturday night. Too bad that after following them off and on all season, there's a good chance I'll miss their last game.

Oh well, at least that will give Yankee fans something to do that night!

Red Sox fans (like myself) are absoultely over the top driven crazy by partisan announcers that seem to be rooting against the Sox. In many cases, we can invent this occurrence when an outsider would probably point out that it probably isn't really going on.

While I thought about commenting on what I found to be an awful broadcasting team for the classic Sox-Yankees ALCS battle (save Al Leiter who could barely get a word in, although those he did get in were generally quite good), I thought about how much more these guys might drive us crazy in the next round, if the Cardinals get through.

Consider:

Buck has been a radio and television announcer for the St. Louis Cardinals since 1991. His broadcasting career began in 1989, while he was an undergraduate at Indiana University. That year he called play-by-play for the Louisville Redbirds of the American Association, a minor league affiliate of the Cardinals....The son of broadcasting legend Jack Buck....He was born April 25, 1969, in St. Petersburg, Fla., the Cardinals spring training home, and was raised in St. Louis where he currently resides...

And:

After signing with the Cardinals in his senior year of high school, McCarver debuted with the Major League team as a seventeen year old in 1959, commencing a twenty-one year Major League career that would span four decades. Earning the role of full-time catcher with the Cardinals in 1963, McCarver excelled at and behind the
plate....From 1964-1969, McCarver developed lifelong friendships with Cardinals’ future Hall of Fame pitchers Bob Gibson and Steve Carlton, who respected his valued insights on opposing hitters. McCarver starred in two more World Series, 1967 and 1968...

Prepare to hear complaints from Red Sox Nation, Fox Sports. And not just about Scooter, the talking baseball.

There's really nothing else to say. This was a great night, I don't think I've been this happy about a sports event since the Pats won Super Bowl XXXVI. And I really can't think of anything prior to that great night that can top this.

So what can you say about it? Great words have already been written about it; for example, Sports Guy said this on espn.com:

To recap: Greatest comeback in sports history. First trip to the World Series in18 years. First meaningful victory over the Yankees. All at the same time. You have to be from here to understand. You just do. It wasn't just that the Yankees always win. It was everything else that came with it -- the petty barbs, the condescending remarks, the general sense of superiority ....It was like pressing the re-start button on a video game.

I think that tells the story pretty well. For me this ranks right up there:

1. Super Bowl 36
2. The last 4 nights
3. UConn beating Duke in the NCAA Finals in '99
4. Super Bowl 38
5. Dave Henderson's homers

Of course I don't remember #5 too well, so maybe I should really replace it with Derek Lowe completing the save against the A's in the ALDS last year.

Game 7, NYC, tonight.

Wanted to comment on my impressions of the fans in this series and how they have reacted to the various situations.

Pre-series: Confidence for both teams. Sox fans are believing they really have the best team, but a bit nervous about Schilling's ankle, and what if it happens again. Yanks fans always believe, but at least acknowledge that this Sox team is their equal...at least on paper.

Game 2: With a win behind them, and an early lead, the hilarious but predictable "who's your daddy?" chants begin. Yankee fans truly have their swagger back.

Game 3: Down 2-0, the Sox fan confidence is completely gone, and my biggest pet peeve about this group becomes apparant. They expect to lose. The Yanks come back to tie, and the raucous crowd goes silent. I don't know what kind of impact fans can have on a game, but if a negative enrgy has any effect, they are bringing it to the Park.

Game 4: Yankee fans are so cocky now, as they should be. Sox fans in the stadium are acting like a bunch of losers. Down 4-2, they can't even bother to get loud on two strikes, or cheer their hitters on. They are just waiting to lose. This group gets quieter faster, and takes a defeated attitude more quickly, than any group of fans in sports. Down 4-2, with nothing to lose (but the entire season), why not try to root your team on to victory, and at the least show your appreciation for the great entertainment they've given us this year? Instead they act like a bunch of losers.

Game 5: I had ranted the night before about how Sox fans are losers and how ashamed I am, but after the previous night's events, it actually seemed like the fans expected to win. They would get a little silent when the Yankees had men on base, which is the exact opposite of what happens in the Bronx, but at least they seem to believe.

Games 3-5: So many shots of all the fans praying/unable to look in the stands - I wonder if Fox had to search for those, or if they find the random people doing this and play up for effect. Are Sox fans bigger pessimists, or is Fox more ridiculous and sensationalistic? It's really an unanswerable question. And I think I just made up a word.

Game 6: Before the game, Yankee fans are a bit nervous. Today (day of game 7) they are really nervous. I could see it last night, I can see it in the office. It's all come down to 1 game, not unexpected at the start, but how we got here is the shocker.

Game 7: We'll see what happens tonight, but the big change seems to be that even though this team is better than last year, Sox fans will be proud of them no matter what happens tonight. If they lose, it will hurt. But not nearly as badly as last year hurt. Maybe last year made us stronger. Or maybe it made us detach our emotions from the team a little bit.

But we've grown up, we believe, and we won't die if it doesn't happen tonight.

Now if only the team would repay that maturity with a win...because it would be really, really nice.

My heart.

It's the 11th inning of game 5. Will this game never end?

I can't believe it's taken me 19 months to get on the blog train. It must be officially over as a fad.

Damon pops up a bunt with no outs, and this blogging thing is distracting me like I had hoped.

Plus I just erased my first post. Good start.

Trying again...after a double play. Kill me now.