NY Boston Fan

My statement that Paul Pasqualoni may start losing recruits to UConn (in my last post) was wrong, as Coach P has now been fired.

He was a coach who every year was on the hot seat, yet was never fired despite marginal results. I thought he must have embarrassing photos of the college president, but I guess not. It was also stated recently that he would be brought back again, and even the new AD said on the air that he would return, as Syracuse was being spanked in the Durex Ribbed For Her Pleasure Bowl. OK, maybe the bowl wasn't called that, but who remembers the names of these stupid things?

One of my roommates in the fall of 1998, which was Donovan McNabb's senior year, was a Syracuse alum and a rabid fan. As the Orangemen disappointed again with another 8-3 season, he had nothing but bad words to say about the coach. The next year, he started a website with a URL of www.coachpmustgo.com or something like that. That hatred turned profitable as another rabid fan actually purchased the site from him a few years later.

I guess whoever bought it from him will have to find a new hobby. And unfortunately for the rest of the competition in the Big East, there is one less moron coach in the league.

Been without a computer since Christmas Eve, didn't really miss it except not knowing how my fantasy team was doing in the league championship game was rather painful.

One of the great things about sports is it can divert your attention from the misery in the world, sometimes a truly needed distraction.

Things that caught my attention this week included:

-UConn just whomped on Toledo, it was almost never a game and actually made for some boring TV. UConn has really been on the national stage 4 times this year. They lost to BC on a Saturday night, but the win over Pitt on Thursday primetime, the win over Rutgers on Thanksgiving morning, and the trouncing of the MAC champions have to really help with recruiting. Paul P and Joe P, they're coming after your recruits, watch out. Rutgers fans meanwhile, are saying, "that could have been us."

-The Pats handled the Jets with no problem, which makes for fantastic listening on NY sports radio. It makes me feel a lot better about the Patriots. That game didn't mean too much, but it did to the Jets, and they went into their house and just dominated.

-Looks like Randy Johnson is going to the Yankees. Blech.

-Most importantly, to me, I won my fantasy football championship by 0.88 points (an extra 9 yards rushing from Ahman Green would have sunk me). I am now richer, and will be the man around the office on Monday.

Well, thanks to the Red Sox continued efforts to do what it takes, I thankfully don't need to recalculate my last post to consider life without Varitek.

Theo said, "It's not every day you're lucky enough to sign a player who embodies everything you want your franchise to be," general manager Theo Epstein said. "When you have that player, you don't let him get away."

Awesome.

Merry Christmas everyone.

A guy from my company just said, "The Red Sox are going to be cellar-dwellers next year. They are terrible." He was being serious.

Well I thought based on the stuff with Win Shares that I had already done, that maybe they were shaping up about the same as last year's team, but I wasn't sure, so I thought I'd take another look at it.

The best way I can think to evaluate it, is to look at the pitching staff and the hitters and see if the team is likely to give up more or less runs, and score more or less runs.

Using runs created, I found that Pokey Reese, Orlando Cabrera, Nomar Garicaparra, and Cesar Crespo created less runs than Edgar Renteria and Ramon Vazquez did last year, in 12 less at bats. It is likely that for the most part, the production of those 4 players will be replaced by Renteria and Vazquez, and after standardizing their plate appearances, the Red Sox picked up 7 runs from last year, if 2004 numbers can be repeated.

Meanwhile, Jay Payton, if you standardize his plate appearances to match the combined total of Ellis Burks, Gabe Kapler, and Dave Roberts, gives the Red Sox an additional 10 runs.

So with all of the major contributors accounted for from last year, outside of Varitek, the Red Sox are 17 runs better on paper than they were in 2004. The only problem is that we are talking about 3 players to replace what is essentially 4, but as long as they don't bring in players who actually give a negative contribution, the Red Sox should score about .1 more runs per game.

I then did pretty much the same thing with runs saved against average, comparing the contribution of Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Scott Williamson, Ramiro Mendoza, Curtis Leskanic, and Terry Adams to David Wells, Wade Miller, Matt Clement, Matt Mantei, and John Halama. There are question marks as to what performance can and cannot be repeated, but in 513 2/3 innings last year, the departing crew allowed 5 fewer runs than you would expect from average players. The incoming crew, in 594 2/3 innings, saved 29 runs above average.

OK. We assume a relatively small input from Miller (90 innings) to fill in the Wells and Clement gaps. John Halama as a middle man and Mantei as a set-up man can replace Adams, Leskanic, Mendoza, and Williamson. Once you standardize for innings, the new group actually comes in 20 runs ahead of last year's group.

If the Sox players can repeat their 2004 performances (or at least have the declines cancelled out by improvements), and can fill in the remaining holes with "average" players, they are:

+17 in runs scored
-20 in runs given up.

Based on their runs scored and runs scored against, the new-look Red Sox would be expected to win 101 games. Last year they won 98, right in line with their expected wins based on run differential.

In the end, the "cellar dweller" commenter didn't really stick by his guns, besides the fact that he thought Varitek had signed with Colorado, that Millar was already gone, and that some unknown outfielder who he called Mecklenberg had also left. But I think I'm prepared to win this argument should it come up with any Yankee fans.

The Sox have agreed to a one year deal, with Wade Miller.

The Astros didn't want him because of his health/attitude/funny first name, etc., but this could be a great signing for the Red Sox.

Of course, it raises the question - if he is healthy, who drops out of the rotation?

Well between Curt Schilling, Wade Miller, and David Wells, it is definitely a good idea to have 6 starting pitchers. The probability of all three of them being healthy at the same time, and that all of the other three starters (Clement, Wakefield, Arroyo) are also healthy and clicking, is probably somewhat low.

Here's hoping that Tito, for most of the season, has to decide which of these six guys belong in the starting 5.

Good signing.

If you loved baseball in the 1980s, then you'll enjoy this roundtable discussion of the upcoming Hall of Fame vote (results announced January 4th).

If they gave votes to random baseball fanatics, this would be my ballot (in order):

- Wade Boggs
- Ryne Sandberg
- Jack Morris
- Jim Rice
- Goose Gossage
- Bert Blyleven

Then, I'd probably consult some books and some websites, and see how I feel about including Blyleven, and excluding Alan Trammell.

How would you vote? You can get the eligible players list here.

In December 19th's Boston Globe, Conan O'Brien weighs in with his thoughts on why the Red Sox finally won the World Series. I've copied them here in their entirety.

When your leadoff hitter is a 600,000-year-old caveman, an 86-year-long curse seems pretty insignificant.
First-year manager Terry Francona implemented a new series of complicated signs, which were as indecipherable by the opposition as a victory speech by Mayor Menino.
Just before the July 31 trade deadline, Ben Affleck unloaded the slumping Jennifer Lopez for the scrappy Jennifer Garner and a stripper to be named later.
In the process of suturing Curt Schilling's injured ankle, Dr. Bill Morgan - in a serious breach of medical ethics - installed the torsion bar from a Dodge Caravan.
The Red Sox were able to generate more enthusiasm recently by building seats on the Green Monster, on the right-field roof, and along the side of David Ortiz's meaty thighs.
In an incredible first strike, the Red Sox nicknamed themselves "The Idiots" before the New York Post could. The Post's subsequent headline, "Yes, You Are!" took the steam out of the whole town.
Manny Ramirez's disheveled appearance rattled opposing hitters, who often called timeout because they thought a homeless man had wandered onto left field.
Jason Giambi's mysterious illness was later traced to one of the many debilitating diseases thriving on Trot Nixon's cap.
In a wrongheaded attempt to counter the Red Sox' 281/4-inch "Mahow Mahow" De La Rosa, George Steinbrenner purchased 71-inch former UN secretary "Boutros Boutros"-Ghali. The results are disastrous.
Red Sox fans finally embraced Neil Diamond's "Sweet Caroline" as their eighthinning anthem, after years of disappointment with Diamond's "You Don't Bring Me Flowers."
The Cardinals were intimidated by Bronson Arroyo's cornrows, especially when crop circles mysteriously appeared in the fifth inning of Game 1.
Schilling bought Drew Bledsoe's $12 million mansion for $6.6 million, starting his goodluck streak. Bledsoe, in typical fashion, held onto something too long and got creamed.
After drawing a base on balls off Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning of ALCS Game 4, Kevin Millar is arrested by a Boston cop for failing to walk a straight line to first. His replacement, Dave Roberts, steals second and scores the game-tying run.
The fact that Theo Epstein's grandfather co-wrote Casablanca led all Red Sox fans to believe the season would have a classic and unpredictable ending. By the way, this means that during the off-season, Steinbrenner will be shot by the French police.
Pedro Martinez's statement that "the Yankees are my Daddy" initially delighted Yankee fans but ultimately distracted and confused them with warm, paternal feelings.
A-Rod's desperate swipe at Arroyo's glove showed the Yankees to be vulnerable. Bostonians hadn't seen a slap like that since Wade Boggs hit on a waitress at Hooters.
When the Yankees lost Don Zimmer in the off-season, they lost the man who was instrumental to their World Series victories in 2000, 1999, and 1978.
A batter may not be intimidated by Pedro or Schilling, but a grinning Stephen King will haunt your dreams forever.
The Red Sox players loved and respected Terry Francona, not for his management ability but because he could stuff a wad of tobacco the size of Ted Kennedy's head in his mouth.
Any town that can con $15 billion out of the federal government just to have a slightly faster way to get to the airport can surely finagle a World Series.

Over at "The House that Dewey Built," they have been looking at the same thing that I have, with slightly different metrics, and probably in a more clear manner. The verdict? The Sox have gotten better in this offseason.

It's a really well-done Sox blog, one I'll be sure to add to my links on the left next time I update my template!

It's obvious the Pats miss Ty Law, especially with Tyrone Poole out. A crew of Asanti Samuel, Randall Gay, and Troy Brown doesn't really give me hope that the Patriots can beat the Colts. This weakness was summed up by a depressing quote in the Boston Globe:

As one player on an opposing team said recently, "It's embarrassing that we were unable to capitalize on their secondary. I mean, really embarrassing."

It looks like Law wants to play this weekend, but I'm not so sure that's such a good idea. With a one game lead for a first-round bye, I'd rather give him an extra week's rest, hope you win anyway, and let the Colts take care of things for you. If the Pats lose and the Colts beat the Chargers, then I think all the Pats would need to do to get the #2 seed is beat the pathetic Niners in week 17, since they beat the Colts earlier this year.

OK, this is an issue that is close to me right now (look for my name in the credits of a 2006 movie release), so I thought I'd post this pretty funny Dave Barry column from Saturday. My favorite line, which you should only read if you don't believe me that it is a good column and refuse to just click the link:

Do we truly believe that ALL red-state residents are ignorant racist fascist knuckle-dragging NASCAR-obsessed cousin-marrying road-kill-eating tobacco-juice-dribbling gun-fondling religious fanatic rednecks; or that ALL blue-state residents are godless unpatriotic pierced-nose Volvo-driving France-loving left-wing Communist latte-sucking tofu-chomping holistic-wacko neurotic vegan weenie perverts?

Yes. This is called "diversity," and it is why we are such a great nation - a nation that has given the world both nuclear weapons AND SpongeBob SquarePants.

OK, so David Wells can't replace Pedro. And Matt Clement, as excited as I am to get him, can't replace Pedro. But can Wells and Clement replace Pedro and Lowe?

Win shares say not quite, suggesting that Clement and Wells combined (last year) were worth about one team win less than Pedro and Lowe combined. We'll see if Wells can match his 2003 production with the Padres, and we'll see how both adjust to the American League. (With Schilling, Bellhorn, Mueller, Renteria, Clement, and Wells, Theo seems to have a National League bias).

But, if they hold to form, we're now -1 in the wins column in pitching, and +2.67 in the shortstop department. To keep that overall number positive, it's time to sign 'Tek.

With earth-shattering results for a lung cancer drug released last night, Pfizer stopping a trial of Celebrex because of increased cardiovascular events, and Eyetech and Pfizer (potentially) announcing the approval of a key eye drug any minute now, I haven't had time to post.

And I won't have a computer all weekend.

So if you're visiting, check this out, and think twice before you yell at the ref next time.

My fiancee asked last night, with regards to the apparant 3-way trade that would bring Randy Johnson to the Yankees, "why would anyone want to leave the Dodgers to play in Arizona?"

Well that question has become a good one, as Shawn Green seems to be asking the same thing, and he's got a no-trade clause.

This trade, were it to go through, would be a double-whammy against the Red Sox. First, adding Randy Johnson, making Jaret Wright your 5th pitcher, makes you the clear favorite in a season or a series.

The part that makes it worse, is that clearly the Sox need to counter by bringing a solid #2 pitcher on board. With Pedro and Hudson becoming impossibilities on the same day, Brad Penny is one of the few remaining options. If this trade goes through, he's off the table. That pretty much leaves Matt Clement, Odalis Perez, and not much breathing room.

Just once, I'd love for an athlete to just admit that they left because they were offered more money. I'd be willing to do that if someone wanted to pay me millions to leave my job!

Martinez turned down a $40.5 million, three-year offer from the Red Sox and told his agent Monday to work out a deal with New York.
"Boston wouldn't pull the trigger,'' he said. "Why did they have to wait until the last minute or so?''

OK, so this one is actually pretty funny (it's called Sunday morning).

The one thing they need to stop doing is basically spoiling the punch line on espn.com before you watch the cartoon. Just tell us there's a new cartoon, and we'll watch it. If you tell us the cartoon is about Dale Sveum waving a guy home and he's out by a mile, and then that's the whole cartoon, well that kind of kills the joke.

THE RED SOX WON THE WORLD SERIES!!!!

OK, so the idea of putting together a team in the offseason is to put together a team that will win games, right? I think some people may be looking at Renteria as a nice replacement for Nomar or Cabrera. But, another way to look at it is that he will help the team win more games next year than they did in 2004. If the Sox can equal their wins from last year, then they put themselves in a great position to get back to the World Series.

3 win shares is basically equivalent to 1 win. Last year, the combined Red Sox short stops only combined for about 9 win shares. Nomar and Cabrera combined for 10.5, but the combined "contribution" of Crespo and Pokey Reese actually hurt the team.

Renteria put together 17 win shares. By this measure, he may be worth 2.67 wins more than the Red Sox shortstop crew from last year. Hopefully that can counteract the Red Sox potential pitching deficit.

UPDATE: Another stat you can look at for this sort of thing is VORP (Value Over Replacement Players), which measures how valuable a player really is compared to an average schmoe that you could plug in in his place. Nomar + Cabrera = 30.3 (Sox stats only). Renteria is at 27.3. But Crespo and Reese, again, post significantly negative numbers (more reason not to sign Reese for any significant cash).

So if Renteria can stay healthy, he will give them greater production than the Sox received last year, but maybe a little less than they got in the time that Nomar and Cabrera were healthy.

Update #1 looked at the top 100 of all time. With Red Sox greats #15 and #25 now gone, I thought it would be a good time for win shares update #2, which will look at the top 25 all-time Red Sox win shares leaders.

A few notes:
-This is only Win Shares accrued as a Red Sox player. So Babe Ruth is not #1.
-This is compiled using Bill James's Win Shares book, and sources like Hardball Times and Baseball Graphs to fill in the recent years.
-Lefty Grove was knocked off the list since 2001.
-Win shares in parentheses, active players in bold, my comments in italics.

And here it is!

1. Ted Williams (555)
2. Carl Yastrzemski (488)
3. Dwight Evans (337)
4. Wade Boggs (301)
5. Jim Rice (282)

Many have made the case that Rice should be in the hall of fame. And I don't think anyone disputes that Boggs should be in the hall of fame, with most of his success coming with the Red Sox, but no one really mentions Dwight Evans in hall of fame talk. I'm not saying he belongs there, but he really is overlooked as even a possibility.
Over 75% of Boggs's win shares came with Boston. We'll see what cap he wears in the hall.

6. Bobby Doerr (281)
7. Tris Speaker (265)
8. Roger Clemens (250)
9. Cy Young (247)
10. Harry Hooper (241)

Another trio of hall of famers, although they spent quite a lot of time on other teams before going. About 63% of Clemens's career win shares came with the Red Sox.

11. Dom DiMaggio (220)
12. Rico Petrocelli (205)
13. Carlton Fisk (182)
14. Babe Ruth (180)
15. Nomar Garciaparra (177)

There's Nomar! Just short of Babe Ruth's output with Boston, but I have a feeling he won't be catching him in his post-Red Sox production.

16. Reggie Smith (171)
17. Johnny Pesky (170)
18. Jimmie Foxx (161)
19. Larry Gardner (159)
19. Duffy Lewis (159)

Don't have too much to say about this group, don't have the prestige of the others, nor the strangeness of the next group:

21. Joe Cronin (158)
22. Fred Lynn (154)
23. Bob Stanley (149)
23. Mo Vaughn (149)
25. Mike Greenwell (146)
25. Pedro Martinez (146)

I think if someone had told Pedro Martinez that if he only stayed for one more year, that he could be 18th on the all-time Red Sox win shares list, he definitely would have turned down the extra year from the Mets.
Oh, and one last thing. Notice that I didn't use bold for any of the players, as none of them still play for the Sox.

Part 3 will be looking at Wakefield, Nixon, Manny, Damon, and Ortiz, and how long it will likely take until they can crack this list. And depending how free agency goes, perhaps we'll look at Lowe and Varitek as well.

So a couple of hours listening to New England sports radio yesterday afternoon presented the appearance that Red Sox Nation is in an absolute panic over Pedro. If Pavano is gone, and Pedro isn't an option, what the heck are we going to do for a rotation? Schilling-Wells-Arroyo-Wakefield-Kim is not adequate!

At the same time, if the Sox go out and match Pedro's supposed offer of 4 years, $50 million plus, we're going to have at least two years (if not more) at the back end of the deal of people lamenting over Pedro, his attitude, and how overpaid he is.

So it's a lose-lose situation for management, at present. The only way it can be fixed is with a trade, or some smaller free agent signings that leave the team with flexibility for 2006 (I know, blasphemy!).

But in my opinion, the worst thing that can be done is a knee-jerk reaction to "keep up with the Yankees," which is exactly what hurt the Sox in the late 90s, and the Mets since 2000. Yes, there are Hudsons and Burnetts, and even Randy Johnsons out there, but let's not give away the farm just because the Yankees are overpaying for Carl Pavano.

Was reminded of this classic Steven Martin SNL skit over the weekend, thought I could track it down. I love the internet. God bless us everyone!

If I had one wish that I could wish this holiday season, it would be for all the children to join hands and sing together in the spirit of harmony and peace.

If I had two wishes I could make this holiday season, the first would be for all the children of the world to join hands and sing in the spirit of harmony and peace. And the second would be for 30 million dollars a month to be given to me, tax-free in a Swiss bank account.

You know, if I had three wishes I could make this holiday season, the first, of course, would be for all the children of the world to get together and sing, the second would be for the 30 million dollars every month to me, and the third would be for encompassing power over every living being in the entire universe.

And if I had four wishes that I could make this holiday season, the first would be the crap about the kids definitely, the second would be for the 30 million, the third would be for all the power, and the fourth would be to set aside one month each year to have an extended 31-day orgasm, to be brought out slowly by Rosanna Arquette and that model Paulina-somebody, I can't think of her name. Of course my lovely wife can come too and she's behind me one hundred percent here, I guarantee it.

Wait a minute, maybe the sex thing should be the first wish, so if I made that the first wish, because it could all go boom tomorrow, then what do you got, y'know? No, no, the kids, the kids singing would be great, that would be nice. But wait a minute, who am I kidding? They're not going to be able to get all those kids together. I mean, the logistics of the thing is impossible, more trouble than it's worth!

So -- we reorganize! Here we go. First, the sex thing. We go with that. Second, the money. No, we go with the power second, then the money. And then the kids. Oh wait, oh jeez, I forgot about revenge against my enemies!

Okay, I need revenge against all my enemies, they should die like pigs in hell. That would be my fourth wish. And, of course, my fifth wish would be for all the children of the world to join hands and sing together in the spirit of harmony and peace.

Thank you everybody and Merry Christmas.

Gammons said on ESPN Radio about 45 minutes ago that the Mets have offered a 4th year to Pedro, and that he has accepted a deal...

UPDATE: Everyone, from Boston Dirt Dogs to ESPN Radio is talking about this being a done deal. Interesting, seems like it is a lot of money (and years) for Pedro. But I'm glad he's going to a team I can root for, and not to a team that will face the Sox.

So who do they turn to now? Matt Clement is the name being mentioned most often. Schilling - Clement - Wells - Arroyo - Wakefield doesn't really strike the same fear that this past year's rotation did.

This is an awful sports weekend, unless you care about who actually wins the Heisman. But there is one great game going on this weekend, unfortunately you'll need to pony up for pay-per-view or visit an Irish pub to go see it.

First-place Chelsea, takes on defending champs and fellow Londoners Arsenal in a match that could go a long way towards determining the Premiership title this year. Kickoff is at 11am - at the least I'll be tuning into the highlights show tomorrow night to see what the amazing Thierry Henry did. (You can probably catch that at 9 or 10 on FoxSports or MSG, it's a bit unpredictable.)

What do Daryl Strawberry, Steve Howe, Dwight Gooden, Gary Sheffield, and Jason Giambi have in common? They are all players who have played for the Yankees, who admittedly messed up big time with chemicals.

But while the first three were players who were given second (or seventh) chances by the Yankees, the big talk is about whether the Yankees will be able to void Jason Giambi's contract. Why not void Gary Sheffield's contract then too - is it because the Yankees are naive enough to believe that he didn't know what he was putting into his body? And what happened to giving players a second chance, particularly if they have admitted their drug abuse?

The difference is that unlike the other four players, Giambi is of no use to them any more. He is a shell of a man, who is tremendously overpaid. This has nothing to do with the purity of the game, the Yankee reputation, or the morality of it all. It comes down to money and performance and nothing else. With past decisions on troubled players in mind, the stated rationale for trying to get rid of Giambi is a sham:

The Yankees are basing their plan of attack on Paragraph 7 (1) of the uniform player's contract, which says that a club may terminate a contract if the player should "fail, refuse or neglect to conform his personal conduct to the standards of good citizenship and good sportsmanship,"

I will admit, if he was on the Red Sox I'd be praying that they could get rid of him. But don't lie to us about the reasons.

Roger Clemens is considering retirement...again.

At least this time he didn't get some prolonged victory tour out of it, tricking people into actually cheering for him.

The best part of the article is this:

"Three of my sons say there's no way they want me to come back and one of them wants me to. But I think he just likes the buffets they have at the games. So we'll have to see," he said.

Like father, like son, I guess.

It wasn't in Papi's new contract he signed this year, that he couldn't play winter ball?

"I feel a very strong discomfort in the shoulder. I'm sorry I can't play winter ball this season," said Ortiz, who had played with Escogido for seven consecutive seasons dating back to 1997.

A good sentiment from a Maine writer and WZON host, (which is good when you want some New England sports talk online):

So, I suppose there is only one question to ask you as we head into the last four games of the regular season and the playoffs. Do you know just how fortunate you are to be a Patriots (and Red Sox) fan during this time and place in your life?

OK, it gets a bit preachy at the end, but he's right. It's an unprecedented good time to be a Boston sports fan.

Tony Womack, given away for a minor-leaguer a year ago by the Red Sox, is headed back to the AL East, presumably to start at 2B for the Yankees.

This is good news for the Red Sox, as the Yankees have for some reason decided not to upgrade at second-base. If they can only make a similar call at CF and 1B, I will get really excited.

Miguel Cairo was a 30-year old, who rarely walked and hit for little power. Tony Womack is a 35 year old, who in a "resurgence" last year, walked only 36 times (striking out 60 times), while slugging less than .400.

I suppose Womack's 26 steals are of value, but I'm not sure of the value of signing a light-hitting, free-swinging 35 year old, for two years and $4 million. Unless the Yankees surprise everyone by signing Jeff Kent or Placido Polanco, making Womack a $2 million utility man and pinch runner.

I hope Nomar has fired his agent, after signing a 1-year deal worth $8 million for 2005, with the Cubs.

I wish him the best, but you can be sure he's kicking himself for rejecting a 4-year deal that was worth up to $15 million per year.

At least Mia has her Gatorade endorsement cash.

Today is arbitration day, and the Boston Globe reports that the Sox will offer arbitration to all four of their eligible players: Pedro Martinez, Jason Varitek, Derek Lowe, and Orlando Cabrera.

All four are expected to test the free agent market, so it is unlikely that any will accept arbitration. The only player with even a slight chance of doing so is Cabrera. The Red Sox would be very happy if he did - this would allow a relatively reasonable one-year contract that bridges the gap until Hanley Ramirez is ready.

But if it is unlikely that any of them will accept, what is the point of offering arbitration? Well, since all four are "type A" players, the Red Sox would receive first-round draft picks as compensation if they signed elsewhere. And how important are extra draft picks? Ask Billy Beane, and just remember, in Theo we trust...

Well, since the name of this site includes "Boston Fan," I feel the need to point this story out:

Dolphins wide receiver David Boston reportedly is facing a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's no-tolerance policy on steroids.

This is almost as surprising as McEnroe's show being cancelled, but take a look at this picture and let me know if you think they even had to have him pee in a cup to confirm he's on the juice.

Does anyone else find it ironic that it took a blind man to criticize Eminem for his music video?

In a rare public outburst, Stevie Wonder has blasted Eminem for ridiculing Michael Jackson in a video, and suggested the rapper was hypocritical because he owed his success to poor and black people.

If you can't ridicule Michael Jackson, who can you ridicule?

Two pop culture posts in a row? Sorry, I refuse to think about this steroid thing right now.

Just because you're loud and obnoxious, does not mean that people will watch your show. (You have to be loud and obnoxious and controversial. Being entertaining helps as well).

The show was averaging 75,000 viewers a night, less than half of the viewership for business programming in the time slot before "McEnroe" went on the air. On some nights, it didn't get a Nielsen Media Research rating at all, meaning the audience was too small to measure.

The Patriots' hope for home-field advantage in the AFC may have sailed just wide right last night, when Josh Scobee missed what would have been a game winning 60-yard field goal. He just missed it, too.

Pittsburgh's remaining schedule:
vs. Jets
at Giants
vs. Ravens
at Bills

The Bills are suddenly looking tough, and January 2nd isn't a great time to be in Buffalo. And neither of the two home games are walk-overs, but I just don't see either team hanging with the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

If the Pats can win out, with their toughest game at the Jets, they may well be depending on Drew Bledsoe of all people to help them out in week 17.

Win Shares, although not perfect (yet), is one of the best ways to be able to statistically compare the accomplishments of players across eras. With the news of the past few days, now seems as good a time as any to provide an update on where some of today's stars now rank on the all-time cumulative Win Shares list. I'll provide an updated rank, along with the number of Win Shares for a few key players. Active players in bold, my comments in italics

1. Babe Ruth (756)
2. Ty Cobb (722)
3. Barry Bonds (664)
4. Honus Wagner (655)
5. Hank Aaron (643)
6. Willie Mays (642)
7. Cy Young (634)
8. Tris Speaker (630)
9. Stan Musial (604)
10. Eddie Collins (574)

So Barry Lamar Bonds moved from 8th to 3rd in 2004. If he replicates his three-year average, he'll remain at #3 after 2005, but would pass Cobb and Ruth in 2006. Of course, who knows what will happen with his career, and his stats, after this week's revelations.

I was also surprised to notice that 3 of the top 8 players played for Boston at some point in their careers.

11. Mickey Mantle
12. Walter Johnson
13. Ted Williams
14. Pete Rose
15. Rickey Henderson (534)
16. Mel Ott
17. Frank Robinson
18. Joe Morgan
19. Rogers Hornsby
20. Nap Lajoie

To rank this high, you obviously had to be very good, over a long period of time. Rickey played for a long time, but longevity alone doesn't get you up this high. Good thing they don't take away Win Shares for horrible analysis, or Morgan might be a few spots lower.

21. Lou Gehring
22. Carl Yastrzemski
23. Kid Nichols
24. Pete Alexander
25. Mike Schmidt
26. Eddie Mathews
27. Sam Crawford
28. Reggie Jackson
29. Al Kaline
30. Eddie Murray

Jeez, the third decile is much less impressive than the one before it. Although I do believe we have our first third-baseman sighting here.

31. Jimmie Foxx
32. George Brett
33. Cal Ripken Jr.
34. Christy Mathewson
35. Paul Waner
35. Robin Young
37. Dave Winfield
38. Paul Molitor
39. Tim Keefe
40. Warren Spahn

A lot of 80's players in that group, but notice that it's been a long time since we had an active player?

41. Monte Ward
42. Willie McCovey
43. Pud Galvin
44. Fred Clarke
45. Tony Mullane
46. Roger Clemens (398)
46. George Davis
46. Tony Gwynn
49. John Clarkson
50. Craig Biggio (395)

Finally, some old Astros to add to the list. I think some people would be surprised to see Clemens that low, and Biggio that high. If Clemens could put together one more season like his 2003 season (assuming he can't have another like 2004), he'd move up about 8 spots. If Biggio could repeat his 2004 effort, he'd move up to about the same spot, in Paul Molitor's range.

51. Wade Boggs (394)
51. Bill Dahlen
53. Lefty Grove
53. Old Hoss Radbourn
55. Tim Raines (390)
56. Jesse Burkett
57. Tom Seaver
58. Joe DiMaggio (387)
59. Jeff Bagwell (386)
60. Rafael Palmeiro (385)

This is an interesting group. Boggs just got pushed out of the top 50 by Biggio; everybody thinks Boggs is a lock for the HOF, so what does that say for Biggio? Seeing Tim Raines that high is a bit surprising, and you can count on stat geeks arguing for his HOF induction in a few years, but I think that will largely fall on deaf ears - people just don't think of him as a hall of famer. And then you've got Bagwell and Palmeiro, who's career accomplishments now rank up there with Joltin' Joe, even if you must give Joe extra credit for his peak performance.

Others in the top 100:
64. Roberto Clemente
65. Yogi Berra
65. Roberto Alomar
---
72. Carlton Fisk
72. Gary Sheffield
74. Steve Carlton
---
78. Frank Thomas
---
95. Dwight Evans
96. Ryne Sandberg
97. Bobby Wallace
98. George Van Haltren
99. Dick Allen
100. Mark McGwire
101. Andre Dawson
101. Ken Griffey, Jr. (340)

It's always fun to rank the players, and this is just one way to look at it. But it really does put some perspective on the careers of some players, and what they accomplished (or didn't).

Part 2 will look at the new order of all-time career Red Sox Win Shares. Preview: two Sox have broken into the top 25 since the original Win Shares book was published after the 2001 season. One is already gone, and one may be gone soon.

The Yankees are reportedly making room in the outfield for Beltran, while pawning "The Run Fairy" off on the Mets.

The Yankees and Mets swapped lefties yesterday, according to multiple
baseball officials, with Stanton landing back in pinstripes and Felix Heredia
heading to Shea.

The Yanks are also near a trade that would send Kenny Lofton to the
Phillies for righty Felix Rodriguez. The Yankees would send just over $1 million
to the Phillies as well, a baseball official said.

On ESPN.com, Buster Olney argues that maybe the Mets are smart to go after Pedro.

If the Mets actually outbid the Red Sox and sign Martinez -- by bumping up the annual salary they are offering or by including a reasonable vesting option for a fourth year -- then the team could have a pretty good rotation, in what is a decidedly mediocre division.

That rotation, 1. Martinez, 2. Glavine, 3. Benson, 4. Trachsel, 5. Victor Zambrano, is actually pretty good. Pedro is certainly still a top of the rotation guy, even if he isn't a strong Cy Young candidate every year, and a move back to the NL would help him. Glavine was pretty good last year, although he doesn't inspire complete confidence. Trachsel is solid, and is a fine #4, while the third and fifth guys are there as much based on potential as anything else. But at least they wouldn't be heading into spring training wondering which two minor leaguers would step up to make the rotation, a trend in recent years.

Of course, like any recent Mets teams, there would still be a lot of problems:

Yes, there would still be holes in middle relief, a need for a decision on Piazza, a spot for a run-producing corner outfielder. And even if the rotation is theoretically upgraded, the potential for disaster is very high. Glavine is as risky as any pitcher almost 40 years old. There's a chance that Benson's wife, Anna, will be in the tabloids more than the pitcher. Zambrano's had elbow problems.

Finally, Olney concludes with a paragraph intended to defend the drive for Pedro, but I think it is actually a better summary of exactly why he should not pursue him. For evidence of why this strategy does not work, one only needs to look at the Mets' 2001 off-season bonanza (italics mine).

But you are Omar Minaya and you are ready to take chances. Your team is trying to re-establish itself, preparing to create its own television network in '06. That's why you're negotiating for the likes of Sammy Sosa (a big name which makes no sense whatsoever), even challenging George Steinbrenner for control of the winter's back pages. If you think you can contend next summer, then maybe you take the next step and make damn sure you get the best available free-agent pitcher -- Pedro Martinez.

How Red Sox used technology, from video scouting to simply upgrading their OS, to help themselves win the World Series.

Ha ha!

Hurry up and pay, Yankees, so we can throw some more cash into this ridiculous West-side stadium idea!

The Yankees owe the city almost $3.6 million because the team underreported its revenue and overstated its allowable deductions, according to an audit released Wednesday by New York City Comptroller William Thompson.

The audit covered 2001 and 2002. Thompson said the team has agreed to pay only about $2.5 million of the $3.59 million the comptroller says it owes the city.

I hate this.

"So I started to ask him: 'Hey, what are the things you're doing with Barry? He's an incredible player. I want to still be able to work out at that age and keep playing,' "Giambi testified. "And that's how the conversation first started."

I think we all knew this was coming. What I hate so much about it, is not so much that cheaters are getting millions and millions of dollars. And the two home runs that Giambi hit in game 7 against the Sox last year, that kept them in the game to lead to my most painful sports memory, well that doesn't bother me so much either.

What really bothers me is that I get so much joy out of debating and thinking about yesterday's players vs. today, and this steroid issue puts a haze over the whole discussion. There's no way to remove any part of it, what has happened has happened.

And now we continue to wait for more names, and more allegations...

I've decided to put a little work into how the blog looks, let me know what you think, if you have any opinion one way or another.

I wasn't happy with how little text fit on each line, making even relatively short posts extend far down the page.

As I'm no html pro, I've got more work and there are specific things I'd like to do, but it's a start.

In particular I don't like the way the About Me section looks, I'd like it to be smaller, and not indented, but I can't find anywhere in the code to fix that.

The Mets' bullpen coach has made a comparison that nobody in Boston ever wants to hear again:

"I think Pedro could do for us, the New York Mets, what Clemens did..."

Clemens turned 34 in his last year with the Red Sox. Pedro will turn 34 next year.

Now everyone knows what to get me.

Seriously though, who really would pay that much for something like this?