Saturday, December 04, 2004
Career Win Shares Update #1
Win Shares, although not perfect (yet), is one of the best ways to be able to statistically compare the accomplishments of players across eras. With the news of the past few days, now seems as good a time as any to provide an update on where some of today's stars now rank on the all-time cumulative Win Shares list. I'll provide an updated rank, along with the number of Win Shares for a few key players. Active players in bold, my comments in italics
1. Babe Ruth (756)
2. Ty Cobb (722)
3. Barry Bonds (664)
4. Honus Wagner (655)
5. Hank Aaron (643)
6. Willie Mays (642)
7. Cy Young (634)
8. Tris Speaker (630)
9. Stan Musial (604)
10. Eddie Collins (574)
So Barry Lamar Bonds moved from 8th to 3rd in 2004. If he replicates his three-year average, he'll remain at #3 after 2005, but would pass Cobb and Ruth in 2006. Of course, who knows what will happen with his career, and his stats, after this week's revelations.
I was also surprised to notice that 3 of the top 8 players played for Boston at some point in their careers.
11. Mickey Mantle
12. Walter Johnson
13. Ted Williams
14. Pete Rose
15. Rickey Henderson (534)
16. Mel Ott
17. Frank Robinson
18. Joe Morgan
19. Rogers Hornsby
20. Nap Lajoie
To rank this high, you obviously had to be very good, over a long period of time. Rickey played for a long time, but longevity alone doesn't get you up this high. Good thing they don't take away Win Shares for horrible analysis, or Morgan might be a few spots lower.
21. Lou Gehring
22. Carl Yastrzemski
23. Kid Nichols
24. Pete Alexander
25. Mike Schmidt
26. Eddie Mathews
27. Sam Crawford
28. Reggie Jackson
29. Al Kaline
30. Eddie Murray
Jeez, the third decile is much less impressive than the one before it. Although I do believe we have our first third-baseman sighting here.
31. Jimmie Foxx
32. George Brett
33. Cal Ripken Jr.
34. Christy Mathewson
35. Paul Waner
35. Robin Young
37. Dave Winfield
38. Paul Molitor
39. Tim Keefe
40. Warren Spahn
A lot of 80's players in that group, but notice that it's been a long time since we had an active player?
41. Monte Ward
42. Willie McCovey
43. Pud Galvin
44. Fred Clarke
45. Tony Mullane
46. Roger Clemens (398)
46. George Davis
46. Tony Gwynn
49. John Clarkson
50. Craig Biggio (395)
Finally, some old Astros to add to the list. I think some people would be surprised to see Clemens that low, and Biggio that high. If Clemens could put together one more season like his 2003 season (assuming he can't have another like 2004), he'd move up about 8 spots. If Biggio could repeat his 2004 effort, he'd move up to about the same spot, in Paul Molitor's range.
51. Wade Boggs (394)
51. Bill Dahlen
53. Lefty Grove
53. Old Hoss Radbourn
55. Tim Raines (390)
56. Jesse Burkett
57. Tom Seaver
58. Joe DiMaggio (387)
59. Jeff Bagwell (386)
60. Rafael Palmeiro (385)
This is an interesting group. Boggs just got pushed out of the top 50 by Biggio; everybody thinks Boggs is a lock for the HOF, so what does that say for Biggio? Seeing Tim Raines that high is a bit surprising, and you can count on stat geeks arguing for his HOF induction in a few years, but I think that will largely fall on deaf ears - people just don't think of him as a hall of famer. And then you've got Bagwell and Palmeiro, who's career accomplishments now rank up there with Joltin' Joe, even if you must give Joe extra credit for his peak performance.
Others in the top 100:
64. Roberto Clemente
65. Yogi Berra
65. Roberto Alomar
---
72. Carlton Fisk
72. Gary Sheffield
74. Steve Carlton
---
78. Frank Thomas
---
95. Dwight Evans
96. Ryne Sandberg
97. Bobby Wallace
98. George Van Haltren
99. Dick Allen
100. Mark McGwire
101. Andre Dawson
101. Ken Griffey, Jr. (340)
It's always fun to rank the players, and this is just one way to look at it. But it really does put some perspective on the careers of some players, and what they accomplished (or didn't).
Part 2 will look at the new order of all-time career Red Sox Win Shares. Preview: two Sox have broken into the top 25 since the original Win Shares book was published after the 2001 season. One is already gone, and one may be gone soon.
1. Babe Ruth (756)
2. Ty Cobb (722)
3. Barry Bonds (664)
4. Honus Wagner (655)
5. Hank Aaron (643)
6. Willie Mays (642)
7. Cy Young (634)
8. Tris Speaker (630)
9. Stan Musial (604)
10. Eddie Collins (574)
So Barry Lamar Bonds moved from 8th to 3rd in 2004. If he replicates his three-year average, he'll remain at #3 after 2005, but would pass Cobb and Ruth in 2006. Of course, who knows what will happen with his career, and his stats, after this week's revelations.
I was also surprised to notice that 3 of the top 8 players played for Boston at some point in their careers.
11. Mickey Mantle
12. Walter Johnson
13. Ted Williams
14. Pete Rose
15. Rickey Henderson (534)
16. Mel Ott
17. Frank Robinson
18. Joe Morgan
19. Rogers Hornsby
20. Nap Lajoie
To rank this high, you obviously had to be very good, over a long period of time. Rickey played for a long time, but longevity alone doesn't get you up this high. Good thing they don't take away Win Shares for horrible analysis, or Morgan might be a few spots lower.
21. Lou Gehring
22. Carl Yastrzemski
23. Kid Nichols
24. Pete Alexander
25. Mike Schmidt
26. Eddie Mathews
27. Sam Crawford
28. Reggie Jackson
29. Al Kaline
30. Eddie Murray
Jeez, the third decile is much less impressive than the one before it. Although I do believe we have our first third-baseman sighting here.
31. Jimmie Foxx
32. George Brett
33. Cal Ripken Jr.
34. Christy Mathewson
35. Paul Waner
35. Robin Young
37. Dave Winfield
38. Paul Molitor
39. Tim Keefe
40. Warren Spahn
A lot of 80's players in that group, but notice that it's been a long time since we had an active player?
41. Monte Ward
42. Willie McCovey
43. Pud Galvin
44. Fred Clarke
45. Tony Mullane
46. Roger Clemens (398)
46. George Davis
46. Tony Gwynn
49. John Clarkson
50. Craig Biggio (395)
Finally, some old Astros to add to the list. I think some people would be surprised to see Clemens that low, and Biggio that high. If Clemens could put together one more season like his 2003 season (assuming he can't have another like 2004), he'd move up about 8 spots. If Biggio could repeat his 2004 effort, he'd move up to about the same spot, in Paul Molitor's range.
51. Wade Boggs (394)
51. Bill Dahlen
53. Lefty Grove
53. Old Hoss Radbourn
55. Tim Raines (390)
56. Jesse Burkett
57. Tom Seaver
58. Joe DiMaggio (387)
59. Jeff Bagwell (386)
60. Rafael Palmeiro (385)
This is an interesting group. Boggs just got pushed out of the top 50 by Biggio; everybody thinks Boggs is a lock for the HOF, so what does that say for Biggio? Seeing Tim Raines that high is a bit surprising, and you can count on stat geeks arguing for his HOF induction in a few years, but I think that will largely fall on deaf ears - people just don't think of him as a hall of famer. And then you've got Bagwell and Palmeiro, who's career accomplishments now rank up there with Joltin' Joe, even if you must give Joe extra credit for his peak performance.
Others in the top 100:
64. Roberto Clemente
65. Yogi Berra
65. Roberto Alomar
---
72. Carlton Fisk
72. Gary Sheffield
74. Steve Carlton
---
78. Frank Thomas
---
95. Dwight Evans
96. Ryne Sandberg
97. Bobby Wallace
98. George Van Haltren
99. Dick Allen
100. Mark McGwire
101. Andre Dawson
101. Ken Griffey, Jr. (340)
It's always fun to rank the players, and this is just one way to look at it. But it really does put some perspective on the careers of some players, and what they accomplished (or didn't).
Part 2 will look at the new order of all-time career Red Sox Win Shares. Preview: two Sox have broken into the top 25 since the original Win Shares book was published after the 2001 season. One is already gone, and one may be gone soon.
# posted by Darlucky @ 3:55 PM 
