NY Boston Fan

On ESPN.com, Buster Olney argues that maybe the Mets are smart to go after Pedro.

If the Mets actually outbid the Red Sox and sign Martinez -- by bumping up the annual salary they are offering or by including a reasonable vesting option for a fourth year -- then the team could have a pretty good rotation, in what is a decidedly mediocre division.

That rotation, 1. Martinez, 2. Glavine, 3. Benson, 4. Trachsel, 5. Victor Zambrano, is actually pretty good. Pedro is certainly still a top of the rotation guy, even if he isn't a strong Cy Young candidate every year, and a move back to the NL would help him. Glavine was pretty good last year, although he doesn't inspire complete confidence. Trachsel is solid, and is a fine #4, while the third and fifth guys are there as much based on potential as anything else. But at least they wouldn't be heading into spring training wondering which two minor leaguers would step up to make the rotation, a trend in recent years.

Of course, like any recent Mets teams, there would still be a lot of problems:

Yes, there would still be holes in middle relief, a need for a decision on Piazza, a spot for a run-producing corner outfielder. And even if the rotation is theoretically upgraded, the potential for disaster is very high. Glavine is as risky as any pitcher almost 40 years old. There's a chance that Benson's wife, Anna, will be in the tabloids more than the pitcher. Zambrano's had elbow problems.

Finally, Olney concludes with a paragraph intended to defend the drive for Pedro, but I think it is actually a better summary of exactly why he should not pursue him. For evidence of why this strategy does not work, one only needs to look at the Mets' 2001 off-season bonanza (italics mine).

But you are Omar Minaya and you are ready to take chances. Your team is trying to re-establish itself, preparing to create its own television network in '06. That's why you're negotiating for the likes of Sammy Sosa (a big name which makes no sense whatsoever), even challenging George Steinbrenner for control of the winter's back pages. If you think you can contend next summer, then maybe you take the next step and make damn sure you get the best available free-agent pitcher -- Pedro Martinez.