NY Boston Fan

A (not so) quick look at the Yankee lineup, which is being "raped over the coals" as one of my friend's says, by the media. Here's a short review of how they are doing and how this would likely change going forward:

Derek Jeter - Jeter's off to a good start, he can probably drive the ball a bit more often, but if he just kept up his current pace out of the leadoff spot he'd be one of the better leadoff guys in the league.
Alex Rodriguez - Current pace: .205, 16 home runs, 65 RBI, 65 runs, 162 strike outs, and a big set of goat horns for his play in the field.
Gary Sheffield - He's starting to hit. That .758 OPS will climb up to 1.000 before too long. So the Yankees have their second source of potential extra runs.
Hideki Matsui - Matsui's been great. He probably can't quite keep up this pace, but he probably won't be too far off of it either. His high RBI total is due in part to the inability for the previous two guys to do anything at all.
Jason Giambi - We have no idea what we're going to get from this guy. I would be that he'll get slightly better, certainly getting his OPS over .800 which is OK, but he'll still be infuriating Yankee fans. For now, I'll just say that he'll just keep up his current pace.
Jorge Posada - This is probably the toughest guy to call. Has he just gotten old, or is he in a slump? I think it's probably a combination of both, but he looked so bad yesterday that I'd say it's mostly slump. It didn't look like bat speed, he just looked uncomfortable in the batter's box and had no idea what he was doing. I'd say he'll fall between last year's numbers and this year's pace.
Ruben Sierra/Tino Martinez - Ugh. If Bernie is washed up, the bottom of the lineup is not scary at all. I think we're getting what we're going to see out of the Yankee DH/1B platoon here.
Bernie Williams - Another big question mark. I think if the Yankees had signed Beltran I wouldn't be writing this post, but I'm glad for the chance. Bernie Williams is no longer Bernie, but he's not yet a .219 hitter either.
Tony Womack - Sorry Yankee fans, a .306 OBP and a matching slugging is about all you're going to get from this guy, even if the YES announcers will get over-excited about the 30 steals that comes along with it. But then again, it's your #9 hitter, so really, that isn't too bad.

Based on where the Yankees players are individually, and what I would expect going forward, I compared that to runs created to see how many more runs they would have to date if they were on their expected pace. Looking through, I'd expect A-Rod to pretty much triple his offensive contribution in terms of runs created (5 more runs to this point), Sheff to increase by 33% (2 more runs), Matsui's slight decline to offset Sheff, and Bernie and Jorge to each increase such that would have added 1 run each.

So where would 7 more runs put them at this point? Having scored 56, and given up 69, which works out to be a .400 winning percentage. Ouch. That's a 65-97 record.

So as I listen to radio hosts rip through the lineup (A-Rod, Giambi, Tino, Sierra, Posada, Sheffield), I think that it is somewhat warranted. But the reality is that Yankee pitching has given up one less run than Texas, and 8 less than Colorado, and everyone else in the majors has been better. So while the fans and media can look at some of the "stars" that aren't hitting, and question Torre for his bizarre lineups, it is the pitching that everyone should be focusing on.

The list of underperforming pitchers is much longer than the list of hitters, and it starts with key acquisitions that can't get anyone out (Jaret Wright, Felix Rodriguez), the former anchors of the bullpen who have gone from automatic to heart-attack provoking (Gordon and Rivera), and a former ace who's been averaging almost 2 baserunners per inning (Mussina).

These guys are old, so it could be the alignment of all of them getting too old at the same time. Today, Kevin Brown, another old pitcher will try to right the ship. I wouldn't be nervous as a Yankee fan after 11 games. It's early. If Brown gets pounded today, I start to get nervous.

But in reality, Johnson will be better. Pavano will be a bit better. Mussina will be better. Gordon and Rivera will be better. They HAVE to be, or this team will be the biggest bust in the history of the major leagues. But I'd put money on them performing more like their 2004 forms than their early 2005 forms, as the rest of the season plays out. So if the odds of the Yankees making the world series have taken a dive over the last week, it might make for a good investment.

You know, if betting on the Yankees winning wouldn't corrode your soul and put a curse on your first-born child.